Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
https://revistasober.org/article/5d9633ff0e8825291d2bac33
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Artigo original

IMPORTÂNCIA DAS ATITUDES DOS AGRICULTORES AO RISCO DE DECI· SÕES DE PRODUÇÃO

Elmar Rodrigues da Cruz

Downloads: 0
Views: 1046

Resumo

O tema principal deste trabalho é mostrar que risco não deve ser tomado como o único fator que explica as discrepâncias entre os níveis economicamente ótimos de insumos e os níveis realmente usados. Após a apresentação do modelo conceituai, é introduzido o conceito de função de resposta esperada, estimada através de uma abord_agem subjetiva, a qual permite estimar-se para cada agricultor da amostra os níveis economicamente ótimos de fertilizantes, que são então comparados com os níveis realmente usados. Conclui-se que as discrepâncias resultantes destas comparações não são adequadamente explicadas pelo fator risco, e sugere-se então a possibilidade de outros fatores estarem presentes nas tomadas de decisões dos agricultores.

Referências

1. ANDERSON,J.R.Programmingforefficientplanningagainstnon-normalrisk.AJAE,19 (2): 94-107, 1975.

2. ANDERSON,J.R.;DILLON,J.L.;HARDAKER.Agricultura!decisionanalysis.IowaState University Press, Ames, 1977.

3. BOLEN, K.R. Farmer responses to market uncertainty. Ph.D. Thesis. Illinois, US, 1976.

4. BROWN, T.M. Habit persistence and lags in consumer behaviour. Econometrica, 22 (3), 1952. 

5. BUCCOLA, S.T. & FRENCH, B.C. Estimating exponential utility functions. Agricultura! Economics Research, 30 (1 ): 37-43, 1978.

6. CHANG, S.J. An economic analysis of the adoption of new wheat varieties under risk in Ferozepur District (lndia). Ph.D. Thesis. North Carolina, US, 1976.

7. CHAVAS, J.P. & ARCIA, G. Risk and decision making in agricultura! production. Trabalho apresentado à Conferência da AAEA. San Diego, Califórnia, 1977.

8. CON RAD, K.· Gewohnheitsbildung und dynamischer nutzen und nachfragefunktione jahrbuch für nationalõkonomie und statistik, v. 191, p. 646-91, 1977.

9. DE FINETTI, B. Foresight: its logical laws, its subjectivE/ sources. ln: KYBURG, H.E. & SMOKLER, H.E. (ed.). Studies in subjec,tive probability. Wiley, 1964.

10. DILLON, J.L. An expository review of Bernoullian decision theory: is utility futility? Rev. Marketing Agric. Econ. v. 39, p. 3-80, 1971.

11. _ _ _ _ _ . The analysis of response in crop. and livestock production. Pergamon Press, 2nd ed., 1977.

12. DILLON, J.L & SCANDIZZO, P.L. Atitudes dos agricultores nordestinos de subsistência em relação ao risco: abordagem amostral. Revista de Economia Rural, 16 (1): 7-25 (with an english summary).

13. FAGERIA, U.K. & ZIMMERMANN, F.J.P. Interação entre fósforo, zinco e calcário em 1rroz de sequeiro. Tech. Buli., n. 5, CNPAF-EMBRAPA-Brazil, 1978.

14. FELLNER, W. Probability and profit: a study of economic behaviour along bayesian lines. lrwin, Homewood, 1965.

15. FRANCISCO, E. & ANDERSON, J.R. Chance and choice west of the darling. AJAE, p. 82-93, Aug. 1972.

16. FREUND, R.J. The introduction of risk into a programming model. Econometrica, 24 (3): 253-63, 1966.

17. GELLATLY, C. Some aspects of current research on risk and uncertainty. Trabalho apresentado à Conferência da AAEA. San Diego, Califórnia 1977.

18. GRILICH ES, Z. Distributed lags: a survey. Econometrica, 35 (1 ): 16-49, 1967.

19. HALTER, A.N. & DEAN, G.W. Decisions under uncertainty. South Western Publ. Co., 1971.

20. HAMPTON, J.M.; MOORE, P.G.; THOMAS, H. Subjective probability and its measurement. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, v. 136, p. 226-47, 1973.

21. HAZELL, P. B. R. A linear alternative to quadratic and semivariance programming for farm planning under uncertainty. AJAE, v. 53 p. 53-62, 1971.

22. HAZELL, P.B.R. & SCANDIZZO, P.L. Competitiva demand structures under risk in agricultura! linear programming models. AJAE, v. 56, p. 235-44, 1974.

23. HILDRETH, C. What do we about agricultura! producers' behaviour under price and yield stability. AJAE, 59 (5): 898-902, 1977.

24. HOEFLICH, V.A.; CRUZ, E.R. da; TOLLINI, H. Sistemas de produção agrícola no cerrado. Trabalho apresentado ao 4.0 Simpósio do Cerrado. Brasília, 1976.

25. HOGARTH, R.M. Cognitive processes and the assessment of subjective probability distributions. JASA, v. 70, p. 271-91, 1975.

26. HOUTHAKKER, H.S. & TAYLOR; L.D. Consumer demand inthe United States 1 9 2 9 - 1970: analysis and projections. Harvard University Press, 2nd. ed., 1970.

27. JUST, R.E. An investigation ofthe importance of risk in farmers' decisions. AJAE, v. 56, p. 14-25, Feb. 1974.

28. _ _ _ _ _ .Risk aversion under profit maximization. AJAE, p. 347-52, May. 1975.

29. KUSS0\/1/, W. R. Response of upland rice to different leve Is of technology at Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil. Mimeo. Soil Science Dept. University of Wisconsin, 1976.

30. KUSSOW W.R.; CORUM, K.R.; DALL'ACQUA, F.M. Interpretação agroeconômica de ensaios de adubação. Tech. Buli., n. 4, CN PAF-EMBRAPA - Brazil, 1976.

31. LIN. W. Measuring aggregate supply response under instability. AJAE, 59 (5): 903-7, 1977.

32. LIN, W.; DEAN, C.W.; MOORE, C.V. An empirical test of utility vs. profit maximization in agricultura! production. AJAE, p. 497-508, Aug. 1974.

33. LOISTL, O. The erroneous approximation of expected utility by means of a Taylor series expansion analytical and computational results. AER, 66 (5): 904-1 O, 1976.

34. MAGNUSSON, G. Production under risk: a theoretical study. Upsala: Almqvist and Wikselle, 1969.

35. MASSELL, B.F. Farm management in peasant agriculture: an empirical study. Food Research Institute Studies, p. 205-1 5, 1967.

36. MOSCARDI, E. &DE JANVRY, A. Attitudes toward risk among peasants: an econometric approach. AJAE, 59 (4): 710-16, 1977.

37. OFFICER, R.R. & HALTER, A.N. Utility analysis in a practical setting. AJAE, v. 50, p. 257-77, 1968.

38. PERRIN, R.K. lmplications of risk for agricultura! development policies. Trabalho apresentado na Conferência da AAEA. San Diego, Califórnia, 1977.

39. POPE, R.L. &JUST, R.T. On the competitive farm under production uncertainty. AJAE, 21 (2): 111-18, 1977.

40. PRATT, J.W. Risk aversion in the small and the large. Econometrica, v. 32 p. 122-36, 1964.

41. ROUMASSET, J. Rice and risk. Amsterdam, North Holland, 1976.

42. _ _ _ _ _ . Risk and uncertainty in agricultura! development. ADC, (15): 1-11, Oct. 1977.

43. RYAN, T. Supply response to risk: the case of U.S. pinto beans. The Western Journal of Agricultura! Economics, v. 2, p. 35-43, Dec. 1977.

44. SANDERS, J.H. & BEIN, F.C. Agricultura! development on the brazilian frontier. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 24 (3): 593-609, Apr. 1976.

45. SCHLAIFFER, R. Analysis of decisions under uncertainty. New York, McGraw-Hill, 1969.

46. SIMMONS, R.L. & POMAREDA, C. Equilibrium quantity and timing of mexican vegetable exports. AJAE, p. 472-79, Aug. 1975.

47. SPETZLER, C.S. & VON HOLSTEIN, C.A. Stael. Probability encoding in decision analysis. Mgt. Science, v. 22, p. 340-58, 1975.

48. TRAILL, B. Risk variables in econometric supply response models. JAE, 29 (1 ): 53-61, 1978.

49. TVERSKY, A. & KAHMEMAN, D. Judgement under uncertainty. Heuristics and biases. ln: WENDT, D. & VLEK, C. (ed.). Utility, probability and human decision making. Dordrecht: Reide!, p. 141-62. 1975.

50. VON NEUMANN, J. & MORGENSTERN, O. Theory of games and economic behaviour, 2nd ed. eh. 3 and appendix, 1944.

51. WEBSTER, J.P.G. The analysis of risk farm mandgement decisions: advising farmers about the use of pesticides. JAE, 26 (3): 243-60; 1977.

52. WEBSTER, J.P.G. & KENNEDY, J.O.S. Measurin9 farmers; trade offs between expected incarne and focus-loss income. AJAE, p. 97-105, Feb. 1975.

53. WI ENS, T. B. Peasant risk aversion and allocative behaviour: a quadratic programming experiment. AJAE, p. 629-35, Nov. 1976.

54. WOLGIN, J.M. Farmer response to risk in smallholder agriculture in Kenya: an expected utility model. PhD: Thesis. Yale Unversity, 1974.

55. WOLGIN, J.M. Resource allocation and risk: a case study of smallholder agriculture in Kenya. AJAE, p. 622-30, Nov. 1975.

5d9633ff0e8825291d2bac33 resr Articles
Links & Downloads

resr

Share this page
Page Sections