Agricultural Technological Progress and the Regional Dimension of Potential Multimarket Effects: a General Equilibrium Analysis for Mercosur.
Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira F
Abstract
This paper analyses the potential multimarket effects arising from the technological progress (TP) in agriculture in Mercosur integration process. The study is carried out with the aid of an Applied General Equilibrium Model designed for trade analysis, the GT AP model, in a I O-region/10commodities aggregation. The major focus of the analysis is in the agricultural and agroindustrial sectors. Several hypotheses about the Hicks-neutral type technological progress are analyzed, for Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Results show that Brazil would take in a greater percentage of the surplus generated by TP than Argentina and Chile. In the same way, being technologically behind appears to have a significant cost for Brazil, especially in the GRAINS production sector. This situation would also generate a relatively smaller decrease in sectoral employment level, when compared to the other hypothesis, but this would happen at the expense of reducing wages in the whole economy. The study concludes that the inevitable release of labor out of agriculture in the presence of Hicks-neutral TP is associated to an increase in wages and welfare improvement to the society
Keywords
References
BONELLI, R; FONSECA, R.. Ganhos de Produtividade e de Eficiência: Novos Resultados para a Economia Brasileira. IPEA, RJ. Texto para Discussão n.o 557, abril de 1998.
CHAMBERS, R. G.. Applied production analysis: a dual approach. Cambridge University Press, 1988.
COCHRANE, W.. Farm prices: Myth and Reality. Minneapolis : University ofMinnesota Press, 1958.
FRISVOLD, G. B.. Multirnarket effects of agricultura! research with technological spillovers in Hertel, T. W. (ed.). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cap.13, Cambridge University Press, 1997.
HERTEL T. W. (ed.). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge University Press, 1997, 403 p..
DE JANVRY, A.. A Socioeconomic Model -of [nduced Innovation for Argentina Agricultura( Development. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1973, 87: 410-435.
MACLAREN, D.. An Evaluation of the Cairns Group Strategies for Agriculture in the Uruguai Round in Hertel, T. W. (ed.). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cap. 8, Cambridge University Press, 1997.
MCDOUGALL, R. (ed.). The GTAP 3 data base. Center for Global Trade Analysis. Purdue University, 1997.
OWEN, W.. The Double Development Squeeze on Agriculture. American Economic Review, 1966, 56 : 43-70.
RÊGO, E. C. L.. O Processo de Constituição do Mercosul. Textos para Discussão n.o 23. BNDES, 1995, 9 p..
Facebook
Google+
Twitter
LinkedIn
Mendeley
Email