Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
https://revistasober.org/article/doi/10.1590/1234.56781806-947900540205
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Artigo original

Modelling Beef and Dairy Sectors' Productivities and their Effects on Land Use Change in Brazil

Leila Harfuch; André Meloni Nassar; Wilson Milani Zambianco; Angelo Costa Gurgel

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1234.56781806-947900540205 resr, vol.54, n2, p.281-304, 2016
PDF
SciELO
Downloads: 0
Views: 1070

Abstract

Abstract:: This paper aims to develop new methodology for the Brazilian beef and dairy sectors incorporating different levels of productivities in the Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM), analyzing land use dynamics. Several datasets combinations were used and supply and demand equations were re-estimated. Historical database developed in this paper shows that the livestock sector increased productivity levels per hectare (in both beef and dairy sectors), being an important land releaser for other agricultural uses. Even in frontier regions, the occupation process was followed by productivity increase. When technologies were implemented in BLUM, results show that there were significant differences on land use in 2030, reducing land for pasture compared to BLUM previous version. In this sense, the study concludes that: using average productivity levels on modeling can overestimate pastureland; migration between technologies (lower to higher levels) will continue in the future; and, finally, market and agents' behavior changes might be incorporated in land use economic models, so they can reproduce empirical evidences.

Keywords

Land use, Beef and dairy, Production technologies, Economic modeling

Referências

ABIEC -Brazilian Beef Exporters Association. Brazilian Livestock Profile. Annual report 2015. Apex Brasil, 2015. Available at: http://www.abiec.com.br

AGROCONSULT. Base de dados da divisão pecuária. Florianópolis-SC. 2013. (personal contact).

ANTONIALLI, L. M. and GALAN, V. B. Evolução Tecnológica e Competitividade de uma Pequena Empresa Rural que atua na Pecuária Leiteira. Cad. Adm. Rural , Lavras, v. 9, n. 1, jan./jun. 1997. Available at: <http://200.131.250.22/revistadae/index.php/ora/article/viewFile/129/126>.

ARRUDA, Z. J. A Bovinocultura de Corte no Brasil e Perspectivas para o setor . Campo Grande, Embrapa - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária, 1994. Available at: <http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/316639>.

CEPEA - Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada - ESALQ/USP. 2012. Custos de produção. Available: <http://cepea.esalq.usp.br/boi/?page=372 and http://cepea.esalq.usp.br/leite/?page=672>.

CNA - Confederação Nacional da Agricultura. 2012. Custos de produção da pecuária de corte e de leite. Available at: <http://www.canaldoprodutor.com.br/sobre-sistema-cna/projetos-e-programas/programa-campo-futuro/apresentacao>.

COHN, A. S. et al. Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation . PNAS, mar. 2014. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1307163111).

GIBBS, H. K. et al. Did Ranchers and Slaughterhouses Respond to Zero-Deforestation Agreements in the Brazilian Amazon? Conservation Letters, 16 mar. 2015.

GOUVELLO, C. de, SOARES-FILHO, B. and NASSAR, A. (Coord.). Estudo de Baixo Carbono para o Brasil: Uso da Terra, Mudanças do Uso da Terra e Florestas. Washington, The World Bank, Energy Sector Management Assistance Program, 2010. Available at: <http://siteresources.worldbank.org/BRAZILINPOREXTN/Resources/3817166-1276778791019/UsoTerra_Final_Portugue.pdf>

FNP - Informa Economics. Anualpec - Anuário da Pecuária Brasileira. São Paulo, FNP, 2014.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. 2014a. Pesquisa Trimestral do Abate de Animais. Database available at: <http://www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/tabela/listabl.asp?z=t&o=1&i=P&c=1092#nota>.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. 2014b. Pesquisa Trimestral do Couro. Database available at: <http://www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/tabela/listabl.asp?z=t&o=1&i=P&c=1089>.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. 2014c. Pesquisa Pecuária Municipal. Database available at: <http://www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/tabela/listabl.asp?c=73&z=p&o=26>.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. 2014d. Censo Agropecuário. Database available at: <http://www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/acervo/acervo2.asp?e=v&p=CA&z=t&o=24>.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. 2014e. Pesquisa Industrial Anual - Produto. Database available at: <http://www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/tabela/listabl.asp?c=3463&z=p&o=18>.

IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. 2014f. Pesquisa Trimestral do Leite. Database available at: <http://www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/default.asp?z=t&o=1&i=P>.

ICONE - Institute for International Trade Negotiations. 2014. The Brazilian Land Use Model - BLUM. Available at: <http://www.iconebrasil.com.br/datafiles/publicacoes/estudos/2012/descricao_blum_the_brazilian_land_use_model_blum_0106.pdf>.

IEA - Instituto de Economia Agrícola. 2010. Database available at: <http://www.iea.sp.gov.br/out/bancodedados.html>

LAPIG - Laboratório de Processamento de Imagens e Geoprocessamento. 2014. Radiografia das Pastagens no Brasil. Goiânia, LAPIG, dez. 2014. Available at: <http://issuu.com/sae.pr/docs/estudo_radiografia_das_pastagens>.

LIMA, M. S. et al. Innovation of functional products in the brazilian dairy industry: case study of Elegê Alimentos S. A. In: International Conference on Management of Technology (15: 2006: Beijing). East meets west: challenges and opportunities in the Era of Globalization. Beijing: IAMOT, 2006. Available at: <http://hdl.handle.net/10183/597>.

LINS, P. M. G., VILELA, P. S. and GOMES, S. T. Diagnóstico da Pecuária Leiteira do Estado de Minas Gerais em 2005: relatório de pesquisa. Belo Horizonte, FAEMG, 2006. 156p.

MARTHA JR., G., ALVES, E. and CONTINI, E. Pecuária Brasileira e a Economia de Recursos Naturais . Brasilia-DF, Embrapa, maio 2011, n. 1. Available at: <http://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/handle/doc/908616>.

NASSAR, A. M. et al. Biofuels and land-use changes: searching for the top model. Interface Focus, 2011a. (doi:10.1098/rsfs.2010.0043).

NEPSTAD, D. et al. Slowing Amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains. Science Special Edition, v. 344. 6 jun. 2014. ISSUE 6188.SECEX - AliceWeb. 2014. Available at: <http://aliceweb.mdic.gov.br/>.

STEHFEST, E. et al. Options to reduce the environmental effects of livestock production - comparison of two economic models. Agricultural Systems , v. 114, 2013, p. 38-53. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.07.002)

STRASSBURG, B. N. et al. When enough should be enough: Improving the use of current agricultural lands could meet production demands and spare natural habitats in Brazil. Global Environmental Change , v. 28, 2014, p. 84-97.

USDA - United States Department of Agriculture. 2014. Foreign Agricultural Services: Production, Supply, Distribution. Database available at: <http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx>.

WOOLDRIDGE, J. M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data . Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2002. 737p.
 

5ced95cc0e88252e3da63c10 resr Articles
Links & Downloads
1806-9479 (Eletrônico) 0103-2003 (Impresso)
resr ©2024 Todos os direitos reservados.

resr

Share this page
Page Sections