Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
https://revistasober.org/article/doi/10.1590/1806-9479.2019.187600
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Artigo original

Conhecimento sobre mudanças climáticas implica em adaptação? Análise de agricultores do Nordeste brasileiro

Does knowledge about climate change imply adaptation? Analysis of farmers in Northeast Brazil

Sabrina de Matos Carlos; Dênis Antônio da Cunha; Marcel Viana Pires

Downloads: 1
Views: 1166

Resumo

Este estudo analisa a relação entre conhecimento sobre as mudanças climáticas e adoção de estratégias adaptativas de agricultores do Nordeste (bacia hidrográfica do Rio das Contas, Bahia). Metodologicamente, foi estimado um modelo Probit Bivariado Aparentemente Não Relacionado. Os resultados evidenciaram que conhecimento e adaptação são correlacionados e devem ser pensados de forma conjunta. Agricultores que conhecem os efeitos das mudanças climáticas têm maior probabilidade de adotar medidas adaptativas. Isso reforça a importância de se considerar a percepção, o conhecimento e as condições socioeconômicas dos indivíduos na formulação de políticas públicas de combate aos efeitos das mudanças climáticas.

Palavras-chave

conhecimento, adaptação, mudanças climáticas, bacia hidrográfica do Rio das Contas, probit bivariado aparentemente não relacionado

Abstract

We analyze the relationship between farmer’s knowledge about climate change and the adoption of adaptive strategies. The study area was the Brazilian Northeast (Rio das Contas basin, Bahia). Methodologically, we estimated a Seemingly Unrelated Bivariate Probit model. The results showed that knowledge and adaptation are correlated and should be considered together. Farmers who are aware of the climate change effects are more likely to adapt. This finding reinforces the importance of considering the perception, knowledge and socioeconomic conditions of individuals in the formulation of public policies to counteract the negative effects of climate change.
 

Keywords

knowledge, adaptation, climate change, Rio das Contas basin, seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model

Referências

Abid, M., Scheffran, J., Schneider, U. A., & Ashfaq, M. (2015). Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Earth System Dynamics, 6, 225-243.

Andrade, A. A. X., Silva, G. B., & Andrade, N. A. X. (2015). O acesso às políticas públicas no semiárido e seu reflexo na heterogeneidade da agricultura familiar: o PNAE em Boquira – BA. Revista Extensão Rural, 22(2), 79-97.

Andrade, A. J. P., Silva, N. M., & Souza, C. R. (2014). As percepções sobre as variações e mudanças climáticas e as estratégias de adaptação dos agricultores familiares do Seridó potiguar. Desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente, 31, 77-96.

Baum, C. F. (2006). An introduction to modern econometrics using stata. College Station: Stata Press.

Below, T. B., Mutabazi, K. D., Kirschke, D., Franke, C., Sieber, S., Siebert, R., & Tscherning, K. (2012). Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables? Global Environmental Change, 22, 223-235.

Blennow, K., & Persson, J. (2009). Climate change: motivation for taking measure to adapt. Global Environmental Change, 19, 100-104.

Blennow, K., Persson, J., Tomé, M., & Hanewinkel, M. (2012). Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting. PLoS One, 7(11), e50182.

Borges, J. A. R., Foletto, L., & Xavier, V. T. (2015). An interdisciplinary framework to study farmers’ decisions on adoption of innovation: insights from expected utility theory and theory of planned behavior. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 10(29), 2814-2825.

Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: methods and applications. New York: Cambrigde University Press.

Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA. (2015). Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do agronegócio. Recuperado em: 08 de outubro de 2017, de http://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br

Climate Research Unit – CRU. (2013). CRU TS Data Base v. 3.21. University of East Anglia. Recuperado em: 08 de outubro de 2017, de https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/

Cunha, D. A., Coelho, A. B., & Féres, J. G. (2015). Irrigation as an adaptive strategy to climate change: an economic perspective on Brazilian agriculture. Environment and Development Economics, 20, 57-79.

Debela, N., Mohammed, C., Bridle, K., Corkrey, R., & Mcneil, D. (2015). Perception of climate change and its impact by smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia. Springer Plus, 4(236), 1-12.

Deressa, T. T., Hassan, R. M., & Ringler, C. (2011). Perception of and adaptation to climate change by farmers in the Nile basin of Ethiopia. The Journal of Agricultural Science, (149), 23-31.

Edward-Jones, G. (2006). Modelling farmer decision-making: concepts, progress and challenges. Animal Science, 82, 783-790.

Etwire, P. M., Al-Hassan, R. M., Kuwornu, J. K. M., & Osei-Owusu, Y. (2013). Smallholder farmers’ adoption of technologies for adaptation to climate change in Northern Ghana. Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, 5, 121-129.

Filmer, D., & Pritchett, L. H. (2001). Estimating wealth effects without expenditure data –– or tears: an application to educational enrolments in States of India. Demography, 38(1), l15-l131.

Fuentes, M. C., Bastos, S. B., & Santos, N. M. (2015). Estudo do conhecimento climático popular na região semiárida do estado da Bahia. Revista de Ciências Humanas, 15(2), 349-365.

Galdies, C., Said, A., Camilleri, L., & Caruana, M. (2016). Climate change trends In Malta and related beliefs, concerns and attitudes toward adaptation among Gozitan farmers. European Journal of Agronomy, 74, 18-28.

Gebrehiwot, T., & Venn, A. V. D. (2013). Farm level adaptation to climate change: the case of farmer’s in the ethiopian highlands. Environmental Management, 52, 29-44.

Haden, V. R., Niles, M. T., Lubell, M., Perlman, J., & Jackson, L. E. (2012). Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change? PLoS One, 7(12), e52882.

Hagen, B. (2016). Public perception of climate change: policy and communication. London: Routledge Studies in Environmental Communication and Media.

Hansson, H., Ferguson, R., & Olofsson, C. (2012). Psychological constructs underlying farmers’ decisions to diversify or specialise their businesses – an application of theory of planned behavior. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 63(2), 465-482.

Hartter, J. (2009). Attitudes of rural communities toward wetlands and forest fragments around kibale national park, Uganda. Human Dimensions of Wildlife: An International Journal, 14, 433-447.

Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística – IBGE. (2006). Censo agropecuário 2006: Brasil, grandes regiões e unidades da federação. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.

Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística – IBGE. (2010). Censo 2010: Brasil, grandes regiões e unidades da federação. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC. (2014). Part a: global and sectoral aspects. In C. B. Field, & V. R. Barros (Eds.), Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Kpadonou, R. A. B., Adégbola, P. Y., & Tovignan, S. D. (2012). Local Knowledge And adaptation to climate change in Ouémé Valley, Benin. African Crop Journal, 20, 181-192.

Lebel, L. (2013). Local knowledge and adaptation to climate change in natural resource-based societies of the Asia-Pacific. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18(7), 1057-1076.

Lemos, M. C., & Kirchhoff, C. J. (2016). Climate information and water management: building adaptive capacity or business as usual? In K. Conca & E. Weinthal (Eds.), The oxford handbook of water politics and policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Lemos, M. C., Finan, T. J., Fox, R. W., Nelson, D. R., & Tucker, J. (2002). The use of seasonal climate forecasting in policymaking: lessons from northeast Brazil. Climatic Change, 55, 479-507.

Li, S., Juhász-Horváth, L., Harrison, P. A., Pintér, L., & Rounsevell, M. D. A. (2017). Relating farmer’s perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behavior in Hungary. Journal of Environmental Management, 185, 21-30.

Mabe, F. N., Sienso, G., & Donkoh, S. (2014). Determinants of choice of climate change adaptation strategies in Northern Ghana. Research in Applied Economics, 6(4), 75-94.

Machado-Filho, H. O. (2015). Climate change and its impacts on family farming in the north/northeast regions of Brazil. Brasília: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth, United Nations Development Programme.

Maksoud, H. (1964). Hidrologia e possibilidades hidroenergéticas da bacia do Rio das Contas, na Bahia. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.

Mandleni, B., & Anim, F. D. K. (2011). Climate change awareness and decision on adaptation measures by livestock farmers in South Africa. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 3(3), 258-268.

Marengo, J. A., Alves, L. M., Alvala, R. C. S., Cunha, A. P., Brito, S., & Moraes, O. L. L. (2017). Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências (in press).

Menike, L. M. C. S., & Arachchi, K. A. G. P. K. (2016). Adaptation to climate change by smallholder farmers in rural communities: evidence from Sri Lanka. Procedia Food Science, 6, 288-292.

Moon, H. R., & Perron, B. (2008). Seemingly unrelated regressions. In S. N. Durlauf & L. E. Blume (Eds.), The new palgrave dictionary of economics. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

Moore, F. C., & Lobell, D. B. (2014). Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4, 610-614.

Mudzonga, E. (2012). Farmers’ adaptation to climate change in chivi district of Zimbabwe. Harare: Trade and Development Studies Centre.

Naess, L. O. (2013). The role of local knowledge in adaptation to climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 4, 99-106.

Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlík, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Lampe, M. V., Lotze-Campen, H., D’Croz, D. M., Meijl, H. V., Mensbrugghe, D. V. D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S., Schmid, E., Scmitz, C., Tabeau, A., & Willenbockel, D. (2014). Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3274-3279.

Nguyen, T. P. L., Seddaiu, G., Virdis, S. G. P., Tidore, C., Pasqui, M., & Roggero, P. P. (2016). Perceiving to learn or learning to perceive? Understanding farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to climate uncertainties. Agricultural Systems, 143, 205-216.

Niles, M. T., & Mueller, N. D. (2016). Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs. Global Environmental Change, 39, 133-142.

Nunes, C. R. P. (2016). As mudanças climáticas a partir da implantação de empresas de capital estrangeiro no Nordeste: estado regulador? In A. R. Araújo, G. P. N. Belchior & T. E. Viegas (Orgs.), Os impactos das mudanças climáticas no Nordeste brasileiro (pp. 17-34). Fortaleza: Fundação Sintaf.

Obermaier, M., & Rosa, L. P. (2013). Mudança climática e adaptação no Brasil: uma análise crítica. Estudos Avançados, 27(78), 155-176.

Paula, F. C. F., Lacerda, L. D., Marins, R. V., Aguiar, J. E., Ovalle, A. R. C., & Falcão Filho, C. A. T. (2010). Emissões naturais e antrópicas de metais e nutrientes para a bacia inferior do Rio das Contas, Bahia. Quimica Nova, 33(1), 70-75.

Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., & Mcmahon, T. A. (2007). Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 1633-1644.

Pires, M. V., & Cunha, D. A. (2014). Climate change and adaptive strategies in Brazil: the economic effects of genetic breeding. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, 52(4), 627-642.

Pires, M. V., Cunha, D. A., Reis, D. I., & Coelho, A. B. (2014). Percepção de produtores rurais em relação às mudanças climáticas e estratégias de adaptação no estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil. Revista de Ciências Agrárias (Belém), 37(4), 431-440.

Rosenzweig, C., Elliot, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K. J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., Neumann, K., Piontek, F., Pugh, T. A. M., Schmid, E., Stehfest, E., Yang, H., & Jones, J. W. (2014). Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3268-3273.

Schembergue, A., Cunha, D. A., Carlos, S. M., Pires, M. V., & Faria, R. M. (2017). Sistemas agroflorestais como estratégia de adaptação aos desafios das mudanças climáticas no Brasil. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, 55(1), 9-30.

Superintendência de Estudos Econômicos e Sociais da Bahia – SEI. (1998). Atributos climáticos do estado da bahia. Salvador: SEI.

Temesgen, D., Yehualashet, H., & Rajan, D. S. (2014). Climate change adaptations of smallholder farmers in South Eastern Ethiopia. Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, 6(11), 354-366.

Tesfahunegn, G. B., Mekonen, K., & Tekle, A. (2016). Farmers’ perception on causes, indicators and determinants of climate change in northern Ethiopia: Implication for developing adaptation. Applied Geography, 73, 1-12.

Uddin, M. N., Bokelmann, W., & Entsminger, J. S. (2014). Factors affecting farmers’ adaptation strategies to environmental degradation and climate change effects: a farm level study in Bangladesh. Climate, 2, 223-241.

Wamsler, C., Brink, E., & Rentala, O. (2012). Climate change, adaptation, and formal education: the role of schooling for increasing societies’ adaptive capacities in el Salvador and Brazil. Ecology and Society, 17(2)

Wauters, E., Bielders, C., Poesen, J., Govers, G., & Mathijs, E. (2010). Adoption of soil conservation practices in Belgium: an examination of the theory of planned behavior in the agri-environmental domain. Land Use Policy, 27, 86-94.

Zeleke, M. T., & Aberra, Y. (2014). Determinants of the adoption of land management strategies against climate change in Northwest Ethiopia. Ethiopian Renaissance Journal of Social Sciences and the Humanities, 1(1), 51-64.
 


Submetido em:
08/11/2017

Aceito em:
28/07/2018

5d8a7deb0e8825c707c51225 resr Articles
Links & Downloads

resr

Share this page
Page Sections