Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
https://revistasober.org/article/doi/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.238886
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Artigo Original

Influência do preço da mão de obra na sustentabilidade das explorações vitícolas durienses: uma aplicação de modelos baseados em agentes

The influence of labour costs on the sustainability of douro wine farms: an application of ABM

João Matias; Adelaide Cerveira; Cátia Santos; Ana Alexandra Marta-Costa

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.238886 resr, vol.59, n1, e238886, 2021
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Resumo

Em Portugal, a disponibilidade de mão de obra tem-se revelado um fator-chave para a viticultura de montanha. Estatísticas mais recentes denotam valores preocupantes que poderão colocar em causa a produção de vinho de qualidade e o atraente conjunto de paisagens vitivinícolas consideradas um recurso potencial para o desenvolvimento do turismo. Por a região duriense ser uma das principais regiões vitivinícolas portuguesas, caracterizada por proeminente e acentuada viticultura de montanha, pretende-se, neste trabalho, simular o comportamento das suas explorações perante alterações do preço de mão de obra, recorrendo-se a modelos baseados em agentes (ABM). Foi ainda usado o software MATLAB para obter funções periódicas ajustadas aos dados caracterizadores das variáveis consideradas pertinentes, obtidas de inquéritos presenciais a 110 explorações e atendendo aos dados disponibilizados pela Rede de Informação de Contabilidades Agrícolas (RICA). Posteriormente, o software ABM (NETLOGO) foi selecionado para simular os próximos 100 anos, familiarizando a dinâmica real baseada nos dados anteriormente considerados. Dependendo do preço da mão de obra, no final do horizonte de simulação, com o preço da uva a 0,77€ /kg, das 300 explorações existentes inicialmente, sobrevivem entre 127 e 231 (42,3% a 77%). Num cenário mais otimista, com o preço da uva a 1,17 €/kg, a taxa de sobrevivência oscila entre 72,1% e 93,2%.

Palavras-chave

agent-based model, setor vitivinícola, desempenho, sustentabilidade, mão de obra

Abstract

In Portugal, labour availability has been revealed as a key factor for the activity, particularly in mountain viticulture. The latest statistics present worrying values that could undermine the production of quality wine and the attractive set of wine landscapes considered as a potential resource for tourism development. The Douro Region is one of the main Portuguese wine regions, characterized by a prominent and accentuated mountain viticulture. This paper aims to simulate the behaviour of its farms about the changes in the price of labour, through Agent-Based Models (ABM). The MATLAB software was used to obtain periodic functions adjusted to the data that characterize the relevant variables, obtained from face-to-face surveys of 110 farms, and taking into account the data provided by PTFADN. Subsequently, the ABM software (NETLOGO) was selected to simulate the next 100 years, familiarizing the real dynamics based on the previously considered data. Depending on the price of labour at the end of the simulation horizon, with a grape price of 0,77 €/kg, from the 300 initially existing farms survive between 127 and 231 (42,3 - 77%). In a more optimistic scenario, with a grape price of 1,17 €/kg, the survival rate ranges between 72.1 and 93.2%.

Keywords

agent-based model, wine sector, performance, sustainability, labour

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Submetido em:
18/10/2019

Aceito em:
19/05/2020

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