Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
https://revistasober.org/article/doi/10.1590/1806-9479.2022.268158
Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural
ARTICLE

No impact of rural development policies? No synergies with CCTs? The IFAD-supported Gavião Project in Brazil

Ausência de impactos de projetos de desenvolvimento rural? Ausência de sinergias com CCTs? O Pró-Gavião no Brasil

Lorena Vieira Costa; Steven M. Helfand; André Portela de Souza

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2022.268158 resr, vol.61, n4, e268158, 2023
PDF
Downloads: 0
Views: 325

Abstract

We estimate the impacts of an IFAD-supported rural development project (Pro-Gavião). Because public policies are frequently implemented simultaneously rather than in isolation, we also estimate the impacts of—and possible synergies with—the Brazilian conditional cash transfer (CCT) program Bolsa Família. Developed jointly by IFAD and the State Government of Bahia, Pro-Gavião was a rural development project in 13 contiguous municipalities between 1997 and 2005. Census tract level data were extracted for the analysis from the 1995-96 and 2006 Agricultural Censuses. The evaluation uses propensity score matching to construct a control group of untreated census tracts, and a difference-in-differences estimation to identify impacts. The outcomes analyzed include land productivity, agricultural income and child labor. Although Pro-Gavião involved significant investments in the region, the results suggest little if any program impact, or synergies between the two programs. The unexpected null findings are robust to alternative approaches to identifying the treated census tracts, matching techniques, and heterogeneity in several dimensions. We show that the lack of impacts is not driven by adverse rainfall in the treated communities, or the influence of other programs in the control communities. Alternative explanations for the null results are explored.

Keywords

rural development projects, conditional cash transfers, IFAD, synergies, Brazil

Resumo

Resumo:: Estimamos os impactos de um projeto de desenvolvimento rural financiado pelo FIDA (Pró-Gavião). Uma vez que políticas públicas são frequentemente implementadas conjuntamente, também estimamos os impactos de, e as possíveis sinergias com, o programa brasileiro de transferência condicionada de renda, Bolsa Família. Desenvolvido conjuntamente pelo FIDA e pelo Governo da Bahia, o Pró-Gavião foi um projeto de desenvolvimento rural ocorrido em 13 municípios entre 1997 e 2005. Extraímos dados em nível de setor censitário para a análise dos Censos Agropecuários de 1995-96 e 2006. A avaliação usa Propensity Score Matching para a obtenção de um grupo de controle e diferença-em-diferenças para estimar os impactos. As variáveis de resultado incluem produtividade da terra, renda agrícola e trabalho infantil. Embora o Pró-Gavião tenha envolvido investimentos significativos na região, os resultados sugerem ausência de impactos do projeto, bem como de sinergias entre os dois programas. Esses resultados inesperados são robustos a diferentes abordagens para identificar os setores censitários tratados, a técnicas de pareamento e à consideração de heterogeneidades em diversas dimensões. Mostramos que a ausência de impactos não é resultado de condições pluviométricas adversas ou da influência de outros programas. Explicações alternativas para a ausência de resultados são exploradas.
 

Palavras-chave

projetos de desenvolvimento rural, transferências condicionadas de renda, FIDA, sinergias, Brasil

Referências

Aldana, U., Vásquez, T., & Yancari, J. (2016). Sierra Sur y Juntos: un análisis a partir de la implementación conjunta de estos dos programas en Chumbivilcas (Cusco, Perú). In J. H. Maldonado, R. Moreno-Sánchez, J. A. Gómez & V. L. Jurado (Eds.). Protección, producción, promoción: Explorando sinergias entre protección social y fomento productivo rural en América Latina. Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes.

Bahia. Secretaria do Planejamento - SEPLAN. Companhia de Desenvolvimento e Ação Regional. (2006). Projeto Gavião - Relatório de finalização do projeto. Salvador: CAR.

Becker, S. O., & Ichino, A. (2002). Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity score. The Stata Journal, 2(4), 358-377.

Brauw, A., Gilligan, D. O., Hoddinott, J., & Roy, S. (2015). The impact of Bolsa Família on schooling. World Development, 70, 303-316.

Brown, C. G., & Longworth, J. W. (1992). Multilateral assistance and sustainable development: The case of an IFAD project in the pastoral region of China. World Development, 20(11), 1663-1674.

Caliendo, M., & Kopeinig, S. (2005). Some practical guidance for the implementation of propensity score matching (Disc. Paper, no. 1588). Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

Cardoso, E., & Souza, A. P. (2009). The impact of cash transfers on child labor and school enrollment in Brazil. In P. F. Orazem, G. Sedlacek & Z. Tzannatos (Eds.). Child labor and education in Latin America: an economic perspective. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Chetty, R., Looney, A., & Kroft, K. (2009). Salience and taxation: theory and evidence. The American Economic Review, 99(4), 1145-1177.

Chitolina, L., Foguel, M. N., & Menezes-Filho, N. A. (2016). The impact of the expansion of the Bolsa Família program on the time allocation of youths and their parents. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 70(2), 183-202.

Del Carpio, X. V., Loayza, N. V., & Wada, T. (2016). The impact of conditional cash transfers on the amount and type of child labor. World Development, 80, 33-47.

Dell, M., & Querubin, P. (2018). Nation building through foreign intervention: Evidence from discontinuities in military strategies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(2), 701-764.

Devereux, S. (2016). Social protection for enhanced food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Food Policy, 60, 52-62.

Duflo, E., Kremer, M., & Robinson, J. (2011). Nudging farmers to use fertilizer: Theory and experimental evidence from Kenya. The American Economic Review, 101(6), 2350-2390.

Favareto, A. P., & Seifer, P. (2013). Fatores de sucesso e lições para o futuro: o caso dos projetos apoiados pelo FIDA no Brasil. In Instituto Interamericano de Cooperação para a Agricultura (Ed.), Práticas de desenvolvimento no Nordeste do Brasil: experiências dos projetos apoiados pelo FIDA (pp. 31-68). Brasília: IICA.

Fiszbein, A. N., Schady, N., Ferreira, F. H. G., Grosh, M., Kelleher, N., Olinto, P., & Skoufias, E. (2009). Conditional Cash Transfers: Reducing present and future poverty. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Garcia, F., Helfand, S. M., & Souza, A. P. (2016). Transferencias monetarias condicionadas y políticas de desarrollo rural em Brasil: posibles sinergias entre Bolsa Família y el Pronaf). In J. H. Maldonado, R. Moreno-Sánchez, J. A. Gómez & V. L. Jurado (Eds.), Protección, producción, promoción: Explorando sinergias entre protección social y fomento productivo rural en América Latina. Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes.

Glewwe, P., & Kassouf, A. L. (2012). The impact of the Bolsa Escola/Família conditional cash transfer program on enrollment, dropout rates and grade promotion in Brazil. Journal of Development Economics, 97, 505-517.

Hoffmann, R. (2007). Transferências de renda e redução da desigualdade no Brasil e em cinco regiões, entre 1997 e 2005. In R. P. Barros, M. N. Foguel & G. Ulyssea (Eds.). Desigualdade de renda no Brasil: uma análise da queda recente (pp.17-40). Brasília: IPEA.

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA. (2018). Municipal poverty data. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/Default.aspx.

International Fund for Agricultural Development - IFAD. (2003). Community Development Project for the Rio Gavião Region (PROGAVIÃO): Interim evaluation. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from https://www.ifad.org/en/web/ioe/evaluation/asset/39829997.

International Fund for Agricultural Development - IFAD. (2013). Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka: Dry Zone Livelihood Support and Partnership Programme. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from https://www.ifad.org/web/ioe/evaluation/asset/39823520

International Fund for Agricultural Development - IFAD. (2015). India: Jharkhand Chhattisgarh Tribal Development Programme. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from https://www.ifad.org/web/ioe/evaluation/asset/39823508.

International Fund for Agricultural Development - IFAD. (2016a). IFAD Strategic Framework 2016-2025: Enabling inclusive and sustainable rural transformation. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from https://www.ifad.org/web/knowledge/publication/asset/39369820.

International Fund for Agricultural Development - IFAD. (2016b). Republic of Mozambique: Sofala Bank Artisanal Fisheries Project. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from https://www.ifad.org/web/ioe/evaluation/asset/39824114

International Fund for Agricultural Development - IFAD. (2018). Agency data. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from https://www.ifad.org/en/Q12: Q12]].

Janvry, A., & Sadoulet, E. (2005). Progress in the modeling of rural households’ behavior under market failures. In A. de Janvry & R. Kanbur (Eds.). Poverty, inequality and development: Essays in honor of erik thorbecke. New York: Springer Publishers.

Janvry, A., Sadoulet, E., & Murgai, R. (2002) Rural development and rural policy. In: Gardner, B., & Rausser, G. (Eds.). Handbook of agricultural economics (Vol. 2). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.

Macours, K., Premand, P., & Vakis, R. (2012). Transfers, diversification and household risk strategies: experimental evidence with lessons for climate change adaptation (Policy Research Working Paper, No. 6053). The World Bank.

Maldonado, J. H., Gómez, J. A., & Jurado, V. L. (2016a). Sinergias entre políticas de protección social y proyectos de desarrollo rural: aproximación desde la literatura existente y la teoria. In J. H. Maldonado, R. Moreno-Sánchez, J. A. Gómez & V. L. Jurado (Eds.), Protección, producción, promoción: Explorando sinergias entre protección social y fomento productivo rural en América Latina. Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes.

Maldonado, J. H., Moreno-Sánchez, R., Gómez, J. A., & Jurado, V. L. (2016b). Protección, producción, promoción: Explorando sinergias entre protección social y fomento productivo rural en América Latina. Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes.

Moya, A. (2016). Programas para la reducción de la pobreza rural en Colombia: uma evaluación de las sinergias entre Oportunidades Rurales e Familias em Acción. In J. H. Maldonado, R. Moreno-Sánchez, J. A. Gómez & V. L. Jurado (Eds.), Protección, producción, promoción: Explorando sinergias entre protección social y fomento productivo rural en América Latina. Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes.

Ricker-Gilbert, J., & Jayne, T. S. (2017). Estimating the enduring effects of fertiliser subsidies on commercial fertiliser demand and maize production: Panel data evidence from Malawi. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68(1), 70-97.

Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for casual effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41-55.

Sabates-Wheeler, R., Devereux, S., & Guenter, B. (2009). Building synergies between social protection and smallholder agricultural policies (FAC Working Paper, No. SP01).

Soares, F. V., Knowles, M., Daidone, S., & Tirivayi, N. (2017). Combined effects and synergies between agricultural and social protection interventions: What is the evidence so far? Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Tirivayi, N., Knowles, M., & Davis, B. (2013). The interaction between social protection and agriculture: a review of evidence. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from https://www.fao.org/3/i3563e/i3563e.pdf

United Nations Development Program - UNDP. (2018). Municipal HDI ranking 2000. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from http://www.br.undp.org/content/brazil/pt/home/idh0/rankings/idhm-municipios-2000.html

Willmot, C., & Matsuura, K. (2001). Terrestrial air temperature and precipitation: Monthly and annual time series (1950-1999), version 1.02. Retrieved in 2022, September 27, from http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/ html_pages/README.ghcn_ts2.html

World Bank. (2007). World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for development. Washington, DC: World Bank.
 

Submetido em:
27/09/2022

Aceito em:
09/12/2022

63d7c19ba9539544d5775ac3 resr Articles
Links & Downloads
1806-9479 (Eletrônico) 0103-2003 (Impresso)
resr ©2024 Todos os direitos reservados.

resr

Share this page
Page Sections